2017 Oscar Nominations

phantom thread

Here we go! The Oscars giveth, and the Oscars taketh away, but mostly giveth? Unusual, I know, but I gotta sat… this is a pretty good list of nominees! More thoughts, and foolishly early predictions of who will win below.

Best Picture

  • Call Me by Your Name
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Post
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

How did I do in my Predictions: 7 out of 9
Recent Oscar history has taught me that there are at least a couple movies that get in for Best Picture without having show much support at other awards shows like the Golden Globes and the various Guild Awards. I thought that would be Florida Project, turned out they were Phantom Thread (yay!) and Darkest Hour (nay!). The Shape of Water leads with most nominations, and Three Billboards might be about to lose its status as front-runner without a Best Director nod (more on that later).
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Shape of Water 

Director

  • Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
  • Jordan Peele (Get Out)
  • Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
  • Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
  • Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

How did I do in my Predictions: 3 out of 5
Again, I overshot The Florida Project‘s chances, but what I wasn’t ready for was the exclusion of Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards. The movie’s so far very successful awards-run has been quite divisive, and a snub here might spell the end of its run for Best Picture. And thank God, because we now have Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele, and Paul Thomas Anderson. This is easily the best category of the day.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro 

Actor in a Leading Role

  • Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
  • Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
  • Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
  • Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
  • Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

How did I do in my Predictions: 4 out of 5
I thought the timing between voting and James Franco’s sexual misconduct story breaking was too tight and that he would get nominated anyway, but I guess it wasn’t. That’s a good thing. Oh, and congrats to Denzel Washington for getting nominated for a movie that doesn’t really exist!
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Gary Oldman 

Actress in a Leading Role

  • Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
  • Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
  • Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
  • Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
  • Meryl Streep (The Post)

How did I do in my Predictions: 5 out of 5
This was an easy category to predict. The Post has been shaky this awards season, never fully materializing into the awards juggernaut we thought it was gonna be. It ended up with two pretty high profile nominations which isn’t bad but unusual for Spielberg film. Meryl seemed to many like the weak link here, but you know what they say: “at your own peril, doubt Meryl.”
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Frances McDormand  

Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
  • Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
  • Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
  • Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
  • Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

How did I do in my Predictions: 5 out of 5
I got this one right, but am kinda of sad about it. This is easily (and I mean easily) the worst line-up of the year. There is only one performance here that I would call truly good, and being that he’s the only nomination for his film, he doesn’t seem likely to win. Sorry, Willem.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Actress in a Supporting Role

  • Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
  • Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
  • Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
  • Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
  • Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

How did I do in my Predictions: 4 out of 5
A pretty good lineup. The surprise nominee here is Lesley Manville. Those who remember her wonderful performance is Mike Leigh’s Another Year will be glad she’s getting the recognition she failed to get back when that movie was in the race.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Allison Janney 

Writing (Original Screenplay)

  • The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani)
  • Get Out (Jordan Peele)
  • Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)
  • The Shape of Water (Guillermo Del Toro, Vanessa Taylor)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)

How did I do in my Predictions: 4 out of 5
The Big Sick had a pretty good awards run this year, but still didn’t manage to get into Best Picture. Original Screenplay is its consolation prize, and in a less competitive year, it would stand a good chance of winning. This right is getting tight, with Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards all looking like strong possibilities.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Lady Bird 

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

  • Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)
  • The Disaster Artist (Michael H. Weber, Scott Neustadter)
  • Logan (Scott Frank, James Mangold)
  • Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin)
  • Mudbound (Dee Rees, Virgil Williams)

How did I do in my Predictions: 4 out of 5
Logan becomes the first superhero movie to get nominated in a major category and I gotta say it feels really weird that this is the one that did the trick. Otherwise, it seems like it’s gonna be smooth sailing toward the win for Call Me by Your Name. That would mean an Oscar for James Ivory, and I don’t see anything wrong with that.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Call Me by Your Name  

Cinematography

  • Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
  • Darkest Hour (Seamus McGarvey)
  • Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
  • Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)
  • The Shape of Water (Dan Lausten)

How did I do in my Predictions: 5 out of 5
Rachel Morrison becomes the first woman to ever be nominated in this category for her beautiful work in Mudbound. This is probably my favorite nomination of the day. This looks like a tight race, too, with three movies that stand a very good shot.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Dunkirk 

Costume Design

  • Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)
  • Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)
  • Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)
  • The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)
  • Victoria and Abdul (Consolata Boyle)

How did I do in my Predictions: 3 out of 5
I’m surprised about some of these nominations. This category usually prefers big, flashy costumes, and I feel like Darkest Hour and Shape of Water are pretty subdued compared to what is usually nominated here. A couple movies I though had a better chance: The Greatest Showman, I Tonya, and Wonder Woman. 
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Phantom Thread  

Film Editing

  • Baby Driver (Paul Machliss)
  • Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
  • I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)
  • The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)

How did I do in my Predictions: 3 out of 5
Another movie that did surprisingly well at previous awards, and who people thought stood a good chance a Best Picture nod is I, Tonya. A nomination for Best Editing seem like an indicator that there was some support there, just not enough to take it all the way.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Dunkirk 

Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Darkest Hour
  • Victoria and Abdul 
  • Wonder 

How did I do in my Predictions: 2 out of 3
I was pretty confident this category -notorious for nominating bad movies- was not going to pass up the opportunity to nominate a movie as wretched as Bright, but I guess they decided to go the boring route.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Darkest Hour 

Music (Original Score)

  • Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
  • Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)
  • The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Carter Burwell)

How did I do in my Predictions: 3 out of 5
Why Carter Burwell gets nominated for strumming a guitar a couple times in Three Billboards and not for his evocative symphonic score for Wonderstruck has all to do with the fact that one of those movies is up for Best Picture and the other isn’t. In other news, Academy Award nominee Johnny Greenwood. About time.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: The Shape of Water  

Music (Original Song)

  • “Mighty River” (Mudbound)
  • “The Mystery of Love” (Call Me By Your Name)
  • “Remember Me” (Coco)
  • “Stand Up for Something” (Marshall)
  • “This is Me” (The Greatest Showman)

How did I do in my Predictions: 5 out of 5
I can’t believe I got this one right. Original Song is usually very tricky, almost impossible to predict. I’m proud about this totally inconsequential achievement of mine.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: “Remember Me”  

Production Design

  • Beauty and the Beast (Sarah Greenwood)
  • Blade Runner 2049 (Dennis Gassner)
  • Darkest Hour (Sarah Greenwood)
  • Dunkirk (Nathan Crowley)
  • The Shape of Water (Paul Austenberry)

How did I do in my Predictions: 4 out of 5
Nothing to say here, a perfectly fine and expected list of nominees.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: The Shape of Water  

Sound Mixing

  • Baby Driver 
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi

How did I do in my Predictions: 4 out of 5
I’m still surprised Wonder Woman didn’t get a single nomination. For such a big hit, with such a positive critical reaction, that got mentioned as one of the best movies of the year by both the Producers Guild and the American Film Insitute, in the year of #MeToo to not get anything? It just seems very weird. I mention that here because I thought the sound categories were the most likely place it was going to pop up.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Dunkirk  

Sound Editing

  • Baby Driver
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi 

How did I do in my Predictions: 5 out of 5
Same as the other sound category, which doesn’t usually happen. In fact, the last time we had two identical categories was… never.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Dunkirk  

Visual Effects

  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  • Kong: Skull Island 
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • War for the Planet of the Apes 

How did I do in my Predictions: 3 out of 5
I was expecting to see some love for the practical, immersive effects in Dunkirk, and hoping they would show some love to Okja (the movie that actually has the best effects of the year). Instead they went big and loud with Guardians and Kong.. 
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Blade Runner 2049

Animated Feature

  • The Boss Baby
  • The Breadwinner 
  • Coco
  • Ferdinand 
  • Loving Vincent  

How did I do in my Predictions: 4 out of 5
Academy Award nominee The Boss Baby. And you know what? It’s not even the worst movie in the category. I think it’s actually my second favorite movie in this line-up. Yup, I like it better than Coco. Have I made you sufficiently angry? Good, let’s move on.
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Coco  

Foreign Language Film

  • A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
  • The Insult (Lebanon)
  • Loveless (Russia)
  • On Body and Soul (Hungary)
  • The Square (Sweden)

How did I do in my Predictions: 2 out of 5
Germany’s In the Fade, which won both the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award in this category has been mysteriously snubbed. And now it seems like this award is anyone’s to take. I look forward to see what happens, and to catch up with most of these movies (I’ve only seen The Square).
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: The Square 

Documentary Feature

  • Abacus: Small Enough to Jail  
  • Faces, Places
  • Icarus 
  • Last Men in Aleppo 
  • Strong Island 

How did I do in my Predictions: 3 out of 5
The front-runner in this category was considered to be Jane, a documentary about the life of Jane Goodall. But now that that’s out of the running, it seems like my beloved Faces, Places stands a good chance at the win. I’m rooting for Agnes Varda!
Early non-binding Prediction of Who Will Win: Faces, Places  

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