A Fight Between an Ant and a Dinosaur: Summer 2015 Box Office Predictions

White_Background-930x310The yearly tradition continues. I try to predict exactly which blockbusters will make the most amount of money at the summer box office. We live in a world where blockbusters are no longer synonym with summer, but most of them still come out between May and July.

Before we get into my predictions, let’s take a look at how I did last year. Nine of the ten movies I predicted ended up in the top ten, albeit in a fairly different order than mine (the one movie I didn’t foresee being a hit? Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles). I feel like I made three big mistakes last year: I underestimated the power of Marvel and Guardians of the Galaxy, I overestimated the popularity of How to Train Your Dragon 2 (which I predicted would be no. 2, and ended up barely making the top 10), and I bought too strongly into the “Melissa McCarthy is a movie star” narrative. Tammy wasn’t the hit I predicted it would be, but neither was it a huge bomb (it made 87 Million and the studio made a profit).

Anyway, lessons learned, and without further ado, my predictions for what will be the highest grossing movies of Summer 2015…

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron
Release Date: May 1
Studio: Disney/Marvel
Predicted Box Office: 550 Million
The question is not whether or not Age of Ultron will end up being the biggest grosser of the summer, but whether or not it will be the biggest grosser of the year. It will get some tough competition later in the year when Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 are released, but the summer will most definitely belong to Marvel. Age of Ultron already made 201 Million at the international box office on its opening weekend, so…   

2. Minions
Release Date: July 10
Studio: Universal
Predicted Box Office: 350 Million
It’s no secret that the little yellow Minions are the reason the Despicable Me movies are as massively successful as they are. Universal certainly knows that’s the case, and thus, they’ve decided to cut straight to the chase and make a movie all about these creatures. Personally, I don’t care about the Minions. They feel a little too manufactured for my taste (like the filmmakers created them because they knew they’d be cute), but children LOVE them, and it’s no doubt in my mind that Minions will be a huge hit this summer. Can it make more money than Despicable Me 2? Grossing more than 370 Million dollars will be tough, but not out of the realm of possibility.

3. Jurassic World
Release Date: June 12
Studio: Universal
Predicted Box Office: 300 Million
Nevermind the fact that the trailers make the movie look like a stupid CGI mess. People love Jurassic Park (as well they should), and children love dinosaurs, and people love Guardians of the Galaxy star Chris Pratt. Nostalgia is a powerful thing, and it will more than likely make parents try to get their children to experience how awesome it is to see dinosaurs on the big screen. This movie could suck, I just don’t see what could make people stay away from it.

4. Inside Out
Release Date: June 19
Studio: Disney/Pixar
Predicted Box Office: 250 Million
The first original Pixar film since BraveI’m not entirely sold on the trailer, but then again, many underwhelming trailers preceded wonderful movies during Pixar’s heyday. The only problem is that Inside Out has practically three weeks to make as much money as it can before Minions comes out. The Pixar name brand, the Disney marketing machine, and the fact that there aren’t that many Animated movies competing this summer are all factors that will help Inside Out be a healthy hit on the level of other Pixar movies.

5. Ant Man
Release Date: July 17
Studio: Disney/Marvel
Predicted Box Office: 200 Million
If I learned something from doing this last year, it’s that you should never underestimate Marvel Studios’ ability to get people into the theater. Ant-Man doesn’t seem like a huge money-maker, but if Guardians of the Galaxy topped the box office last year, then this can certainly make 200 Million, right? The fact that Ant-Man‘s biggest competition (in terms of release date), Warner Bros’ Pan was pushed back to October has paved the way to yet another huge Marvel hit.

6. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Release Date: July 31
Studio: Paramount
Predicted Box Office: 180 Million
Ghost Protocolthe fourth installment in the series, was a huge hit and re-invigorated the franchise, but it had the advantage of coming out in the Fall, without other gigantic blockbusters premiering all around it. People are already talking about the crazy death-defiant stunts Tom Cruise performed for this one. I don’t think Rogue Nation will match Ghost Protocol, but a mix of good buzz, love for Cruise, and love for the franchise should make this one a pretty big hit.

7. Mad Max: Fury Road
Release Date: May 15
Studio: Warner Bros.
Predicted Box Office: 175 Million
If it were up to my corner of the internet, this would be the most successful movie of the year. Everyone is flipping out about the latest movie by the director of Happy Feet Two. Just kidding. I’m a little more reserved than most, but I do think this has the potential to be a completely crazy experience. The excitement for this movie reminds me of the buzz going into Godzilla and Pacific RimThis is based on a pre-existing property, so it should do better than Rim, but with an R-rating, this is far too violent and not as kid friendly as either of those movies. I am not confident about my prediction, but I see the potential for a big hit.

8. Spy
Release Date: June 5
Studio: 20th Century Fox
Predicted Box Office: 150 Million
I know I was burned last year. I guess this will be the movie that will define whether or not Melissa McCarthy is a bona fide movie star. The reviews coming out of South by Southwest were great, with most critics saying this was McCarthy’s best comedic work yet. 150 Million would make this a pretty big hit, and even then, it would’ve made less money than the two previous McCarthy-Feig collaborations (Bridesmaids and The Heat). If this movie is as funny as people are saying, then it will have legs, and might end up making much more than this.

9. Magic Mike XXL
Release Date: July 1
Studio: Warner Bros.
Predicted Box Office: 150 Million
Magic Mike broke 100 Million. Fifty Shades of Grey opened huge. I’m just saying, there’s a lot of ladies that want to see some sexy shit go down in a movie theater. I am certain this will be a hit. I just don’t know how much money it’s going to make. Forget it, Terminator GenisysMagic Mike will win the July 4th weekend.

10. Ted 2
Release Date: June 26
Studio: Universal
Predicted Box Office: 150 Million
I know. I’m surprised too. But the failure of A Million Ways to Die in the West aside, Seth McFarlane is still a lot of people’s idea of hilarious humor. And I don’t know if you realize (I certainly didn’t remember), just how big a hit Ted was a couple years ago. 218 Million dollars! I don’t expect this to be as big a hit, but going by the drop between the first two Hangover movies, Ted 2 should end up with at least 150 Million.

Wait, But What About…
What do I think will happen to other high-profile titles? Well, like I said above, I think Terminator Genisys will probably bomb. The same goes for San Andreas (even though The Rock’s star power only seems to be rising). Fantastic Four should make a decent amount of money, but not enough to crack the top ten. Disney isn’t really pushing Tomorrowland that well, which makes me think it’ll do Super 8-type business (something around 120 Million). I also expect Paper Towns and Pitch Perfect 2 to be huge hits, just not quite huge enough for the top ten.

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4 comments

  1. The Animation Commendation · April 30, 2015

    I don’t think Minions will be that popular, but you never know.

    • Conrado Falco · April 30, 2015

      Really? Children just love those Minions, and the Despicable Me movies make so much money!

  2. smilingldsgirl · May 6, 2015

    So excited for Inside Out. Home did so well and it sucked so I think Inside Out will make bank in those 3 weeks. But I am the worst at predicting things so I have no idea but I’m pumped. Minions looks cute. Marvel hasn’t let me down yet so Ant Man should be fun (and I love Paul Rudd). The one I’m the most skeptical on is Jurassic World . I just can’t believe anyone would go back to that island let alone have crowds.

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