Here’s the continuation of my predictions for this year’s Emmy Awards. In case you’re interested, part one of the predictions is HERE. And in case you were wondering, this year’s Emmys seem to be more boring than usual. It seems like last year’s winners are front-runners in most categories. There are always surprises at the Emmys, so I’ll keep my fingers crossed for some crazy stuff to happen on Sunday night.
Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
The Nominees: Ty Burrell (Modern Family), Adam Driver (Girls), Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family), Bill Hader (Saturday Night Live), Tony Hale (Veep), Ed O’Neill (Modern Family)
If you ask me, by far the most deserving performance out of these six nominees is Adam Driver in Girls. His character is an incredibly weird, complex and original creation, but Lena Dunham and the writers of the show manage to get away with a lot of stuff thanks to Driver’s performance. The problem of course is that in order to truly appreciate the performance, you’d probably have to watch the whole season. The other problem is that the best Adam moments tend to be incredibly weird or incredibly unsettling. His submission (“It’s Back”) features him going to an A.A. meeting and a blind date. It shows a very sweet and relatable side to Adam, but I’m afraid it won’t impress Emmy voters. He’s probably the least likely of these nominees to win.
Why did I go on for so long about someone I think won’t win? Well, because this category’s really boring. It’s probably going to one of the Modern Family guys, since people who vote in award shows don’t seem to get tired of it. Considering the tapes they submitted, I give the edge to Ty Burrell, but the race is pretty close. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of his co-stars managed to win. Or if Tony Hale managed a surprise victory, for that matter. His tape features a rather sweet and poignant moment amongst his constantly being bullied by Julia Louis-Dreyfus.
Will Win: Ty Burrell
Should Win: Adam Driver
Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
The Nominees: Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory), Julie Bowen (Modern Family), Anna Chlumsky (Veep), Jane Krakowski (30 Rock), Jane Lynch (Glee), Sofia Vergara (Modern Family), Merrit Wever (Nurse Jackie)
Talk about a boring category… Actually, there are a couple of very good performances in this list, the thing is that they don’t have much of a shot at winning the award. Merrit Wever, who is brilliant in Nurse Jackie and Anna Chlusky who has really come into her own in the second season of Veep are the least likely nominees to win (except, I hope, for Jane Lynch). The most probable winners are, again, the women from Modern Family. A year ago, when it was revealed Sofia Vergara’s character would be pregnant this season, it seemed like she had the Emmy in the bag. Many actresses, including Helen Hunt and Jennifer Aniston, have won for episodes in which her characters gave birth. Vergara, however, has a reputation at being particularly terrible at picking what episode to submit to Emmy voters. So, instead of going with the birth episode, she chose one in which she is revealed to have been a ventriloquist. There are funny moments for her in that episode, but really, Sofia has cleared the way for another Julie Bowen win…
Except, and this is a big exception, maybe Jane Krakowski manages to win for her last season on 30 Rock. Her character might not have been the strongest, but her commitment to the performance could be described as nothing else but excellent comedic work.
Will Win: Julie Bowen
Should Win: I’m fine with Wever, Chlusmky or Krakowski. Gun to my head, I’d vote Wever.
Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
The Nominees: Jonathan Banks (Breaking Bad), Bobby Cannavale (Boardwalk Empire), Jim Carter (Downton Abbey), Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones), Mandy Patinkin (Homeland), Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
The first half of Breaking Bad’s last season wasn’t exactly the show’s strongest moment, but Jonathan Banks gave a wonderful performance making the most out of a character arch that could have felt a little too rushed due to a shortened season. However, the last two times he’s been nomianted, co-star Aaron Paul has walked away with the Emmy. Voters seem to be more than impressed with his performance as Jesse Pinkman, and really, who can blame them? I think he’s even the front-runner to win next year. I guess if someone from Breaking Bad is going to win, it’s Paul. Still, I can’t bring myself to predict him, so I’m going with Mandy Patinkin, who is both great in Homeland, a very well-respected screen and stage actor and a previous Emmy winner.
Will Win: Mandy Patinkin
Should Win: Jonathan Banks
Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
The Nominees: Morena Baccarin (Homeland), Christina Baranski (The Good Wife), Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones), Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad), Christina Hendricks (Mad Men), Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
Why, Maggie Smith? Why do you have to be so funny and quippy and lovable as the Dowager Countess. It was really fun watching you (especially in the first good season of your show), but it’s also kind of irritating that awards bodies can’t resist but shower you with trophies while neglectic more, let’s say, interesting work. It’s very possible you will win this award once again, but by God, was the third season of Downton Abbey nothing but atrocious. Thankfully, I can’t picture a voter popping in Anna Gunn’s episode (“Fifty-One”, the one in which Skyler dives into the pool) and not voting for her.
Will Win: Anna Gunn
Should Wind: Anna Gunn
The Nominees: 30 Rock, The Big Bang Theory, Girls, Louie, Modern Family, Veep
Listen, I know all logical signs point at yet another win for Modern Family, but if the show had already gotten boring, this year it got actually bad. Emmy voters don’t seem to mind, but I can’t possibly fashion the idea of Modern Family winning Comedy Series four times. Four times! That’s the same as All in the Family and Cheers, and you don’t need me to tell you Modern Family ain’t no Cheers. I’m hoping this is the year we finally end the show’s winning streak, but what could win instead?
The Big Bang Theory is the most popular sitcom on the air, but it just doesn’t seem like the kind of show that wins this award. Veep is a much more highbrow show, but it’s also little seen and talked-about. It also wasn’t nominated for either writing or directing. I guess it could go to Louie. I mean, Louis C.K. is kind of the coolest guy in show-business right now. It would be awesome if it did win, but the show might be too weird and not “sitcomy” enough. So, the other possibility is a goodbye win for 30 Rock, which had a pretty terrific final season. Sentimentality sometimes plays a role in this category (as when Everybody Loves Raymond won for its final season). I expect Louie to win Best Directing (for “New Year’s Eve”) and 30 Rock to get the writing award (for the finale, “Last Lunch”), so I guess either one of those could get the big one.
Will Win: What the hell, let’s just say Louie!
Should Win: Louie
The Nominees: Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, House of Cards, Mad Men
I might be wrong here, and I have believed for the longest time that Breaking Bad was just not the kind of show that would win for Drama Series. But with its final episodes airing right now, suddenly it seems like everything is about Breaking Bad all the time. Everyone’s talking about it, everyone’s watching it (the ratings have been huge) and like that year when The Sopranos finally won, it just seems like it’s time. I am not confident about this pick, there’s a big chance Homeland repeats or, God forbid, House of Cards manages to win based on pedigree alone.
Will Win: Breaking Bad
Should Win: I loved this season of Mad Men, but the show’s won before and I thought Game of Thrones had its best season so far. So I’ll go with the latter.